On the evening of August 23, halfway through his second inning of work, baseball’s most dynamic star, pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani, was removed from his start against the Cincinnati Reds with “arm fatigue.” Hours later, Los Angeles Angels general manager Perry Minasian told reporters that Ohatni had torn his UCL.
A UCL tear is a devastating injury for a professional pitcher. It often leads to the feared “Tommy John Surgery,” in which doctors replace the torn UCL with another tendon. The recovery for this surgery is lengthy, sometimes requiring two years of rehabilitation. While it is still unclear whether or not Ohtani’s injury will require him to undergo what would be his second Tommy John, the potential for surgery looms large as the former MVP enters free agency at the end of the season. Batting .304 with 44 home runs and 95 RBIs while posting a 3.14 ERA and a 10-5 record on the mound, Ohtani has been putting together one of the best individual seasons in baseball history. His ability to play both ways at an elite level has set up Ohtani for a potential record-breaking contract in 2024. However, could his recent injury push him out of the $500-600 million range most thought he would see this offseason?
2023 has been the year of Ohtani. The three-time All Star has been one of the most exciting players in all of sports, dazzling viewers with his skills on the mound and at the plate. As hype has built around Ohtani during his final campaign before free agency, numbers north of $600 million have been thrown around by league experts and insiders. How can you blame them? On the field, Ohtani is the ultimate two-in-one package, pitching at an elite level while being arguably the best hitter in baseball. Off the field, he has become a household name, selling jerseys, securing massive endorsement deals, and pulling in large international crowds. The Japanese-born star has established himself as the most valuable player both on the diamond and financially.
This will certainly continue into 2024, as Ohtani remains two things: a top tier hitter and a massive draw. In the MLB, players need two things to secure big contracts: elite skill set and marketability. Check and check. The Yankees’ Aaron Judge, who broke the all-time record for largest free agent contract in 2022, landed a nine-year $360 million deal off the back of a 62 home-run season in which he lead the league in home-runs, runs, RBI, walks, OPS, slugging percentage, OPS+, and total bases. It is important to recognize this, as Judge’s season and subsequent contract serve as a baseline for what we can expect from Ohtani in 2024. Most would consider Judge and Ohtani in the same tier in terms of hitting ability, and while Judge holds more positional value as an outfielder vs. Ohtani as a pure DH, Ohtani remains a better baserunner. It is also worth noting Ohtani has played MLB innings as an outfielder (albeit only 8 ⅓), so a full transition to the outfield if he is unable to pitch isn’t outside the realm of possibility. Given this, Ohtani should be looking to at least match Judge’s contract this offseason. However, Ohtani’s marketability and undeniable draw should push him above Judge and into the $400 million range.
Now for the X-factor: Ohtani’s pitching. The truth is, we really don’t know the full extent Ohtani’s injury will have on his market price in 2024. What we do know however, is this injury has already knocked him down a peg from the mid-season projections. One NL executive stated Ohtani’s injury “could cut into his overall contract by nine figures.” While that may be an extreme estimate, it illustrates the significant impact the injury could have on Ohtani’s price this offseason. Being an elite hitter and pitcher is Ohtani’s main draw, so with one side of that equation in jeopardy, teams could be hesitant to shell out the exuberant amounts of money most thought he would be seeing pre-injury. It is also likely we will see opt-outs or player/team options worked into Ohtani’s contract, giving both him and the team some insurance should injuries become a major issue. Right now, the worst case scenario would certainly be surgery, but the existence of the injury itself generates significant risk in an already risky player.
Regardless of price, the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes will be the most interesting story of the offseason. As more information regarding his injury emerges, we will get a better understanding of what teams are willing to pay. However, while Ohtani’s injury will likely push him down into the $450-500 million range, he is sure to break records in 2024.
